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About the future of home computing....

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edbarx
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About the future of home computing....

#1 Post by edbarx »

This evening, a local TV station (Malta, EU) presented an interview with a university professor holding a doctorate in ICT. He said that the future will bring less powerful machines, the user programs will move to the cloud and users will use/hire programs as they may need them.

Since I use GNU/Linux and I like to have my machine doing the processing locally on my computer, I am inclined to think this will put some drawbacks to whoever like me wants to use a free and open system. Imagine if the grand majority of computer users switch to this model with programs not needing to reside and run on home computers, the price of a system capable of running and holding programs locally would shoot up making it financially difficult to purchase a computer with a capability which currently is available with very accessible prices.

I would like to know what other GNU/Linux users think about this "new" model of doing home computing and whether it will remain possible to have one's programs run on a local machine.

Thanks.
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Randicus
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Re: About the future of home computing....

#2 Post by Randicus »

As has been mentioned in other threads, cloud-computing is not viable for everyone. Not only many home users, but many, if not most, businesses. If that person is correct about less powerful computers being made because of cloud-computing, it would mean two kinds of machines being sold. There would still be too many people and businesses using regular computers for them to become a small and expensive niche product. So my belief is you can set your mind at ease. The convenient and dangerous world envisioned by that professor is still in the (relatively) more distant future.

BowCatShot
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Re: About the future of home computing....

#3 Post by BowCatShot »

There was a college professor who predicted the exact day that he would die. On that date a crowd gathered to watch it happen. At one minute to midnight he shot himself in the head just so he wouldn't be wrong.

Randicus
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Re: About the future of home computing....

#4 Post by Randicus »

A very insightful contribution to the discussion. :roll:
Undoubtedly, this particular professor will shoot Time in the head if he is wrong.

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Re: About the future of home computing....

#5 Post by Bulkley »

The biggest problem with cloud computing is the loss of security when your data is on some corporation's servers, particularly when that corporation has every incentive to use that data for its own ends. To explore software freedom further listen to Eban Moglen on Youtube. You can hear a sample with this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Fr6n5DbkLM Yes, the picture is poor but listening is more important than watching anyway. His discussion of the cloud starts about 8 minutes 45 seconds in.

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Re: About the future of home computing....

#6 Post by korilius »

I've wondered and worried about the cloud computing debacle for some time. I tell everyone that possession is 9/10ths of the law. I assume they understand what I mean. "If it's important to you, keep it close." It's like people who buy gold and silver and then keep it all at their bank! Crazy.

I envision a future for cloud computing... one that would be local and open source. Like my own cloud.

http://wiki.openstack.org/Packaging/Debian
It's to be noted that previously, the effort was made to use the same source package base as for Ubuntu, but since Ghe, Julien and Loic are working on the Debian packaging, the support for Ubuntu has been removed from the packages in Debian (as it was too much efforts and difficult to maintain).
<jab>

andrew`
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Re: About the future of home computing....

#7 Post by andrew` »

A more ideal future (IMO) would be an always-on lower power computer used at home which all other computers connect to for storing files, acting as a server for some programs that run in the browser, and maybe more. Even if that computer/server is always on, a lot of households might save power if people used lower power computers.

I'm not a fan of the "cloud" because a lot of SaaS providers automatically scan your data for advertising and can track when your computer is on (when you use the SaaS). Plus once your data is on the "cloud", it's an uphill battle trying to control it. A supposedly innocent company like Google can easily become a not-so-innocent company in the future. I'm certain that data vulture companies like Datalogix will become more prominent than they are already in the future.

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Re: About the future of home computing....

#8 Post by dilberts_left_nut »

andrew` wrote:A supposedly innocent company like Google
:shock:
:lol:
AdrianTM wrote:There's no hacker in my grandma...

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Re: About the future of home computing....

#9 Post by vrkalak »

About 15 years ago, I attended a lecture at the University, given by a big-wig from INTEL.

He said, "the PC (Home Computer) would never be able to hold a Gigabyte of information. It was not physically possible."

My PC has over a Terabyte (Tb) of internal memory . . . heck, I have a couple of flash-drives that hold 32 Gb now. :D

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Re: About the future of home computing....

#10 Post by andrew` »

dilberts_left_nut wrote:
andrew` wrote:A supposedly innocent company like Google
:shock:
:lol:
I said "supposedly" because of popular opinion. I don't actually believe they're innocent at all. :lol:

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Re: About the future of home computing....

#11 Post by Randicus »

vrkalak wrote:About 15 years ago, I attended a lecture at the University, given by a big-wig from INTEL.

He said, "the PC (Home Computer) would never be able to hold a Gigabyte of information. It was not physically possible."

My PC has over a Terabyte (Tb) of internal memory . . . heck, I have a couple of flash-drives that hold 32 Gb now. :D
Which shows how difficult it is to predict the future. The person edbarx mentions is restricted to only doing what anyone can do. He is predicting the future based on things he knows and believes. There are always other variables that one does not know, and of course, things one believe can be correct or wrong. As an example; imagine how different things may have been if a single man had not come along whose greatest computer-related talent was crashing a computer, but had great marketing ability and a ruthless business attitude. (Bill Gates. Not Mr. Jobs or Linus Torvalds. :lol: ) What unknown variables do and will exist regarding the cloud? Since this cloud-thingy is in the embryonic stage, future development can progress in many directions.

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Re: About the future of home computing....

#12 Post by edbarx »

Bulkley wrote:The biggest problem with cloud computing is the loss of security when your data is on some corporation's servers, particularly when that corporation has every incentive to use that data for its own ends. To explore software freedom further listen to Eban Moglen on Youtube. You can hear a sample with this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Fr6n5DbkLM Yes, the picture is poor but listening is more important than watching anyway. His discussion of the cloud starts about 8 minutes 45 seconds in.
Thanks for the link. It was an interesting and reassuring listening.

OOPs:
I forgot to thank all the other contributors who tried to give a rational answer to my question.

Thanks.
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Re: About the future of home computing....

#13 Post by nadir »

I too enjoy the speeces of Eben Moglen.

I got no clue about the cloud, but you might like this:
https://torrentfreak.com/pirate-bay-mov ... of-121017/
it seems to show that it also has got advantages.

To me it looks as if the future of computing is more like: entertaining-boxes, more close to a TV, but with a few more features (you mean i really can browse youtube with my TV? And my mails too? Amazon and ebay too?). Aka smartphone, smartTV and iPads. An interactive TV, so to say.
Adevertisement will be way more (though if i look at my smartphone it's hard to believe there will be more than that...)
The one (entertain-boxes) doesn't exclude the other (cloud-computing), sure.

We perhaps have to go back to the basements if we want to actually do something with a device.


Eben Moglen, in one speech, says:
"The bad news: we started very bad"
(speaking of the internet, i think here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKOk4Y4inVY . Only slightly related, but it's my main pet -free speech, that is).
"I am not fine with it, so there is nothing for me to do but stand aside." M.D.

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Re: About the future of home computing....

#14 Post by edbarx »

Thanks nadir for the link. It was a very interesting lecture to listen to.
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Re: About the future of home computing....

#15 Post by nadir »

edbarx: if the threat to internet freedom slightly as serious as i see it, then we should discuss such questions as often as possible. I for one got no idea what to do about it, but being informed won't hurt.
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Re: About the future of home computing....

#16 Post by Bulkley »

nadir wrote:edbarx: if the threat to internet freedom slightly as serious as i see it, then we should discuss such questions as often as possible. I for one got no idea what to do about it, but being informed won't hurt.
+1. I think the threat to Internet freedom is one of the major threats of our time because it has the potential to eliminate all other freedoms. This threat is all pervasive. Even if you don't use the Internet your friends are busy selling you out and even your car may be doing it.

As Moglen points out, most countries have laws making it illegal to intercept and read other people's snail mail but most governments want to spy on our email and other private Internet communications. For some reason many people don't care and don't want to talk about it. When I try it always goes badly.

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Re: About the future of home computing....

#17 Post by Randicus »

Bulkley wrote:As Moglen points out, most countries have laws making it illegal to intercept and read other people's snail mail but most governments want to spy on our email and other private Internet communications. For some reason many people don't care and don't want to talk about it. When I try it always goes badly.
That is because regular post is tangible; real, while electronic gadgets are perceived as sorcery. Most people believe their e-mail and items in the cloud are somehow magically protected from intrusion. The people who want to see and steal our information must love the ignorant bliss of the masses.

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Re: About the future of home computing....

#18 Post by chrissywissy »

Randicus wrote: That is because regular post is tangible; real, while electronic gadgets are perceived as sorcery. Most people believe their e-mail and items in the cloud are somehow magically protected from intrusion. The people who want to see and steal our information must love the ignorant bliss of the masses.
+1

I cannot believe those who are happy to store their documents and other files in the cloud. I am even wary of syncing my (Safari, Chrome and Firefox/Iceweasel) bookmarks. I never allow 'remembered' passwords to be synced.

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Re: About the future of home computing....

#19 Post by endived »

edbarx wrote:This evening, a local TV station (Malta, EU) presented an interview with a university professor holding a doctorate in ICT. He said that the future will bring less powerful machines, the user programs will move to the cloud and users will use/hire programs as they may need them.

Since I use GNU/Linux and I like to have my machine doing the processing locally on my computer, I am inclined to think this will put some drawbacks to whoever like me wants to use a free and open system. Imagine if the grand majority of computer users switch to this model with programs not needing to reside and run on home computers, the price of a system capable of running and holding programs locally would shoot up making it financially difficult to purchase a computer with a capability which currently is available with very accessible prices.

I would like to know what other GNU/Linux users think about this "new" model of doing home computing and whether it will remain possible to have one's programs run on a local machine.

Thanks.
Interesting.

If I look around, or at the people I graduated with in secondary school, most of them have only just discovered the internet since they can connect to it with small devices like smartphones and tablets, that provide them with the exact functionality that they need: consuming information and communicating with other people. Or, play games. :)

All these years before, they could have done the same with a personal computer, but a lot of people were somewhat reluctant or intimidated by buying an industrial-grade machine as a household device. Not because they were stupid or didn't have the means or anything.
We're talking about people who are not interested in computing in the broad meaning of the word. They don't want to write code, or compile or modify programs, or build a home network or run their own website at home. They just want to be connected and for them buying a personal computer is like buying a truck to buy and transport groceries.

I also see a lot of friends replacing their personal computers by Android or iOS devices because these fit their needs better. They can Facebook and browse the net and that's what they get. If they want more, they'll need to find or buy an app. Or use a cloud service, like for their email. I often think it's a little funny that people buy apps or use free but ad-infested apps to do stuff for which free code is already abundantly available in an OS like GNU/Linux but they don't know it or they think it's scary or complex. I think there will be more and more or these specialized stripped-down devices. Everything that is already available in a computer system today but which is not really core functionality, can be dropped and sold as an 'extension' in the form of an app or a cloud service.

So, that future this gentleman is talking about, is really just around the corner. If it's not there yet.

Not sure what that is going to mean for the traditional PC or 'general purpose' computer. Demand will drop significantly.
I think there will always be a need for them. Clouds need servers and code and kernels to power them and so they will (I think) always remain available as a consumer product. As long as people are willing and searching to run their own computer shop at home, there will be products on the market.

So running your own programs on your own computer with your own OS will not 'go extinct', but I do imagine these computers will also evolve. Clouds are all about scalability, which certainly will have design consequences. We see the arrival of cheap, low-powered mini-computers like the Raspberry Pi and stuff, again: his prediction doesn't come out of the blue here.
I bought a whole set of these things already and I find myself clustering them and wondering whether I could eventually use this kind of tech to replace my clunky, noisy, power-hungry desktop.
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Re: About the future of home computing....

#20 Post by edbarx »

endived wrote:Not sure what that is going to mean for the traditional PC or 'general purpose' computer. Demand will drop significantly.
I think there will always be a need for them. Clouds need servers and code and kernels to power them and so they will (I think) always remain available as a consumer product. As long as people are willing and searching to run their own computer shop at home, there will be products on the market.

So running your own programs on your own computer with your own OS will not 'go extinct', but I do imagine these computers will also evolve.
Interesting...

Demand will drop significantly implies that my preoccupations are justified because the price of computers capable of running programs locally will shoot up. Maybe, some people don't have any financial constraints, however many, do have.

There is also the question of privacy that other posters highlighted. According to the links provided, it is clear that, it does make sense to provide users of the net, with a mechanism by which they can opt out of personal data mining mechanisms. After all, if anyone is at a private place, maybe home or whatever, having a gadget by manufacturer X, doesn't give X the sacrosanct innate right to snoop, even if this snooping is only intended for commercial purposes. The point is to allow end users to make their own decisions and not to treat adults like children.
Debian == { > 30, 000 packages }; Debian != systemd
The worst infection of all, is a false sense of security!
It is hard to get away from CLI tools.

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